If your predictions are based on your straw poll, and your straw poll is conducted on your readership, then you must be taking for granted that your readership is a representative cross section of the Minneapolis electorate? That seems highly unlikely.
Your survey was fun for engagement, but the results are random noise.
To a certain extent, you are absolutely right. However, the Polymarket reference is completely separate from our reader poll. In addition, we're considering a variety of factors: social media, mailers, yard signs, and speaking with residents.
Biking through the Ward 1 portion of NE over the weekend, I will say I saw quite a few more signs for Strahan than for Payne. There is a sizeable portion of NE that disagrees with the DSA agenda. I have no other data, but wanted to share as that contrasted with the 95% confidence rating.
I may have to lower my confidence, but I haven’t seen many attacks on him specifically versus his being associated with DSA. He seems respected even by those who disagree with him.
You might be confusing disagreement with Payne and his policies and abysmal council leadership with simply a MN Nice polite, civil reaction to someone who at times can be a decent talker who seems to believe his own rhetoric. But I sense a lot of people wanting a change in Ward 1 from Payne's DSA ties. And he has been nearly invisible in his own ward - until election time rolled around.
I’ve worked in politics for the Democratic Party, and I wouldn’t trust online polls to give a clear picture. They often miss the mark, and I found it surprising there aren’t many reliable ones out there. Big media outlets like the StarTribune seem to be focusing their efforts elsewhere, likely to please the wealthy elites. Such are the times.
Ranked choice voting changes the game, and incumbents usually have the edge. But sometimes, a challenger can win with less cash but more enthusiasm and community support.
For anyone looking to beat Fry, they need to show a clear contrast to his ‘I’ve done the hard work’ line. They should point out where he’s dropped the ball and push for a Mayor who engages the city’s collective intelligence. Plus, building a grassroots volunteer base is crucial. Money often wins, but passionate people can turn the tide against an incumbent.
Terry, could you comment on what your “confidence level” means? E.g., in Ward 10 your projected winner is Millard, but your confidence is only 40. Based on the text, you’re effectively giving Grimes no chance at all. That would leave Chughtai with 60, no?
Good question, Mike. I would say it means it means I have less confidence that I am reading the data correctly than say for candidates with a 95. It’s not meant as straight up odds, but I can see how people might interpret that way. It might have been more clear if I had used a 1-5 rating.
If we get something close to your intuition, I’ll be pretty happy.
I suspect the hardest part about polling is getting a representative sampling of likely voters. It’s gotta be way harder now than 40 years ago. It used to be that pollsters could call people on their landlines, and they would answer because there was no caller ID. No more. Now pollsters’ audience is incredibly splintered, with people not answering unknown numbers, and different segments populating various social media platforms. Mall intercepts? Who goes to malls anymore? Many voters can’t be reached on any of these. I’m sure polling methods are way more sophisticated now, and also quite a bit more expensive.
If your predictions are based on your straw poll, and your straw poll is conducted on your readership, then you must be taking for granted that your readership is a representative cross section of the Minneapolis electorate? That seems highly unlikely.
Your survey was fun for engagement, but the results are random noise.
To a certain extent, you are absolutely right. However, the Polymarket reference is completely separate from our reader poll. In addition, we're considering a variety of factors: social media, mailers, yard signs, and speaking with residents.
Biking through the Ward 1 portion of NE over the weekend, I will say I saw quite a few more signs for Strahan than for Payne. There is a sizeable portion of NE that disagrees with the DSA agenda. I have no other data, but wanted to share as that contrasted with the 95% confidence rating.
I may have to lower my confidence, but I haven’t seen many attacks on him specifically versus his being associated with DSA. He seems respected even by those who disagree with him.
You might be confusing disagreement with Payne and his policies and abysmal council leadership with simply a MN Nice polite, civil reaction to someone who at times can be a decent talker who seems to believe his own rhetoric. But I sense a lot of people wanting a change in Ward 1 from Payne's DSA ties. And he has been nearly invisible in his own ward - until election time rolled around.
This is the first show I've ever tried to keep track of anything on the Park board. It is daunting.
I’ve worked in politics for the Democratic Party, and I wouldn’t trust online polls to give a clear picture. They often miss the mark, and I found it surprising there aren’t many reliable ones out there. Big media outlets like the StarTribune seem to be focusing their efforts elsewhere, likely to please the wealthy elites. Such are the times.
Ranked choice voting changes the game, and incumbents usually have the edge. But sometimes, a challenger can win with less cash but more enthusiasm and community support.
For anyone looking to beat Fry, they need to show a clear contrast to his ‘I’ve done the hard work’ line. They should point out where he’s dropped the ball and push for a Mayor who engages the city’s collective intelligence. Plus, building a grassroots volunteer base is crucial. Money often wins, but passionate people can turn the tide against an incumbent.
Terry, could you comment on what your “confidence level” means? E.g., in Ward 10 your projected winner is Millard, but your confidence is only 40. Based on the text, you’re effectively giving Grimes no chance at all. That would leave Chughtai with 60, no?
Good question, Mike. I would say it means it means I have less confidence that I am reading the data correctly than say for candidates with a 95. It’s not meant as straight up odds, but I can see how people might interpret that way. It might have been more clear if I had used a 1-5 rating.
If we get something close to your intuition, I’ll be pretty happy.
I suspect the hardest part about polling is getting a representative sampling of likely voters. It’s gotta be way harder now than 40 years ago. It used to be that pollsters could call people on their landlines, and they would answer because there was no caller ID. No more. Now pollsters’ audience is incredibly splintered, with people not answering unknown numbers, and different segments populating various social media platforms. Mall intercepts? Who goes to malls anymore? Many voters can’t be reached on any of these. I’m sure polling methods are way more sophisticated now, and also quite a bit more expensive.
No guesses for park board or BET?
Hi Sharon, I have too little data to make any predictions with confidence. My general note would be that incumbents retain their seats.