A Summer of Senseless Violence May Have Begun
As the Heat Increases, So Does Gun Violence
This newsletter isn’t here to stoke fear about crime in Minneapolis. That’s not necessary—residents already know it’s a serious issue. If you’ve walked door-to-door for any political candidate, you’ve likely heard firsthand accounts of break-ins, car thefts, shootings, or encampments affecting nearly every neighborhood in the city.
Public safety consistently ranks as a top concern among candidates. Many promote a shift away from traditional policing, favoring nonprofit violence interrupters and unarmed safety ambassadors. Some even envision a future where armed police are no longer needed.
Mayor Jacob Frey has recently noted that crime is down in several categories. He often cites that Minneapolis went 45 days without a homicide beginning February 15—a stretch worth acknowledging.
“This is a strong start, but our work is far from over. We’ll continue our efforts to make Minneapolis a safer place for everyone,” said Mayor Frey.
Summer Brings Change
It’s typical for crime and violence to rise during the summer months. As people spend more time outside, conflict—both spontaneous and planned—becomes more likely. On May 6, a 14-year-old boy was shot and killed in Downtown Minneapolis, reportedly following a dispute among a group of teenagers.
This tragedy underscores an ongoing concern: there is little Downtown to engage or occupy teenagers. Too young for bars and clubs, and often unable to afford restaurants or entertainment options, many are simply left to hang out—with few safe, supervised alternatives. In too many cases, they’re also carrying guns.
A Familiar Face
We’ve never spoken directly with Police Chief Brian O’Hara, but after seeing hundreds of photos of him at crime scenes and hearing him at dozens of press conferences, he has become a constant presence in city life. We would welcome a time when his visibility wasn’t needed so often.
His response to this latest tragedy was apt:
“This is a terrible tragedy. When teenagers have access to guns, conflicts can turn deadly. One young life is lost, and others are forever changed. It’s heartbreaking. The sheer number of guns in circulation—and how easily teens can access them—is unacceptable.”
Counting the Cost
But just how many guns are in circulation?
According to a Minnesota Department of Revenue analysis, around 337,000 guns were sold in Minnesota in 2022 alone. And firearms, unlike many consumer goods, don’t expire. Many remain functional for decades. Multiply that figure over several years, and the total number of guns in this state alone quickly exceeds one million.
And those are just the documented sales. Guns brought in illegally or sold secondhand aren’t included in that count.
The truth is, while Chief O’Hara says the number of guns in circulation is unacceptable, it has, in practice, been accepted. Gun culture is deeply embedded in American society—often defended with the same intensity as freedom of speech or religion. If anything, we may see gun laws grow even more permissive in the years ahead.
What Works?
We will support any policy—regardless of its political origins—if it proves effective in reducing violence. That includes violence interrupters and safety ambassadors, provided there is data to back up their impact and clear billing transparency. Youth diversion programs, night basketball, mentorship, apprenticeships, and gun buyback efforts are all worth trying.
We believe poverty plays a significant role in crime. To ignore the daily reality of families living in destitute conditions surrounded by visible wealth is to invite social unrest. Direct support programs, such as Universal Basic Income, may help. We are currently working on an analysis of Minneapolis’s Guaranteed Basic Income pilot to assess its results.
The Reality Now
No program currently proposed will reduce the sheer volume of guns on our streets. Until that changes, armed police will remain essential. They must be well-trained, well-supported, and held to high standards. Despite valid concerns about misconduct in the MPD, their role in addressing gun violence is undeniable.
We have two teenage sons. If one of them were killed, daily life—working, paying bills, even buying groceries—would feel impossible. Recently, one of them told us he doesn’t take his girlfriend Downtown. Not because of fear, but because there’s nothing for them to do.
This may be one piece of the solution: giving teenagers safe, engaging places to spend time. Because if they’re not at home or in school, they’re somewhere else—and too often, they’re unsupervised and armed.
The key is to stay focused on gun violence as if lives depend on it—because they do. This issue matters more than retail development or rebranding Downtown. It matters because families are grieving. It matters because the cost of inaction is measured in human lives.
This Saturday we’ll be providing live coverage of the Ward 7 convention in a chat for paid subscribers.
I'm sorry, but there isn't anything that anybody is ever going to say to convience me that Guaranteed Basic Income is OK. The government doesn't have any money, so what it gives to one person, it has to take from another. I feel sorry for those in poverty, but sometimes they're in that situation because of irresponsible decisions they've made in their lives, and I don't feel others, those that had nothing to do with that persons decisions should be held financially responsible for those peoples mistakes.
Perhaps this is good time to present some 'Tough Love', rather than gingerly dancing around sensitive issues. For example: early on in High School, we could have required attendance to lectures and presentations on what your life might look like if you get pregnant at an early age without the babies father there to financially provide for you and your new baby. Fact is, without that father there to provide for you, your life is likely to be one in poverty. Bad Choice, but it was your choice not your neighbors.
As far as activities to keep young kids busy and off the streets in a safe enviroment, not only should we be thinking on how we might do that, but perhaps ways we could reward kids for learning to be model citizens and lifting each other up rather than talking smack and threatening each other. Try to make outcomes more win win, rather than we win, you lose.
Thank you, Terry. So sane a perspective. I hear zip from the Youth Coordinating Board these days. Could it be strengthened to create guiding policies and true coordination to achieve them?