The Undecided Voter
The Next Mayor Hinges on Their Choice
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With the Minneapolis municipal election just 30 days away, 17% of voters remain undecided about their choice for mayor, according to polls published by Minneapolis for the Many.
We can’t vouch for the poll’s accuracy—80 percent of responses came via text—but in the absence of other public data, it provides a useful snapshot of who the undecided voters are. Surveys conducted in May and August 2025 showed no change in the rate of undecided voters.
Who Are the 17 Percent?
Much has happened since the polls were conducted that could have nudged voters toward one candidate or another—most of it connected to public safety. Journalist Rick Kupchella’s recent investigative piece, A Precarious State, painted a stark picture of rising crime across Minnesota, and Minneapolis in particular. That report aired after the polls and several mass shootings, including one at Annunciation Church on August 27 in South Minneapolis.
Among undecided voters, nearly half (48 percent) believe the city is “off track.” About a third (34 percent) blame the City Council; 29 percent fault Mayor Frey. Yet when asked about his challengers, most were unfamiliar: 75 percent had no opinion of Omar Fateh, 91 percent were unsure about DeWayne Davis, and 92 percent said the same of Jazz Hampton. One potentially positive sign for Frey: 74 percent of undecided voters approve of Governor Tim Walz, who has endorsed him.
The Demographics of Uncertainty
The undecided bloc leans slightly female (53 percent) and largely Democratic (58 percent), with another third (33 percent) identifying as independent. Most are white (74 percent), and the largest age group falls between 46 and 65 years old (33 percent).
Taken together, these figures suggest that the undecided voter looks much like Minneapolis itself—moderate, pragmatic, and uneasy about the city’s direction. Whether these voters break toward continuity or change will likely determine who occupies City Hall next.
Why Undecided Voters Matter So Much
If early voting trends hold, turnout in this year’s election will at least match 2021, when about 54 percent of registered voters cast ballots—roughly 145,000 people. Of those, an estimated 25,000 remain undecided. Their choices will likely determine who leads Minneapolis for the next four years, shaping how the city confronts its central challenges: public safety, homelessness, and rising property taxes.
Every campaign mailer, digital ad, and phone call over the next month is aimed squarely at this group. They are the audience both mayoral and council candidates must reach.
It is one of democracy’s peculiarities that the uncommitted often hold the most power. Those who follow city politics closely may help frame debates, but elections are decided by those who are less engaged—people who tune out much of the political noise, believe little will change regardless of who governs, or prefer not to think about it. Yet it is their eventual decisions that tip the balance of power.
One of the clearest lessons shaping my understanding of politics came from Republican Gary Johnson’s 1994 victory in New Mexico. With little prior political experience, he used his personal fortune to saturate the airwaves, defeating a 12-year incumbent largely through name recognition. Voters knew who he was, and for many, that was enough.
The same dynamic often favors incumbents, and it may again in Minneapolis. If this election comes down to which candidate voters recognize when they walk into the booth, Mayor Frey starts with a clear advantage.
What to Expect in the City Council Races
By our count, five City Council races appear competitive. Their outcomes will determine whether the next council aligns more closely with Democratic Socialists of America–backed candidates such as Robin Wonsley or with the more pragmatic members, including Michael Rainville and Linea Palmisano.
Two wards stand out as pivotal. In Ward 2, former legislator Shelley Madore is challenging two-term incumbent Robin Wonsley. In Ward 5, the seat left open by Jeremiah Ellison’s decision not to seek re-election has drawn multiple contenders. Ellison’s name recognition—bolstered by his father, Attorney General Keith Ellison—was a significant factor in his earlier campaigns, underscoring how powerful familiarity remains in Minneapolis politics.
In Ward 6, Council Member Jamal Osman is expected to retain his seat. Despite controversy surrounding a nonprofit connected to his family, he has maintained support within his constituency and continues to play an unpredictable role as a swing vote on the council. If Omar Fateh were to win the mayor’s race, Osman would likely emerge as one of his more reliable allies.
If undecided voters break toward Mayor Frey, Minneapolis could see a council majority of nine that supports his agenda.
If, however, voters coalesce around Omar Fateh—whether as their first choice or through ranked-choice reallocation—the effect may cascade down-ballot. Candidates aligned with his campaign would likely prevail, producing a council with a veto-proof majority, possibly nine members in support of the Fateh/Wonsley agenda.
Get Out the Vote
The next 30 days will be crucial for candidates trying to build name recognition before ballots are cast. Ward 8 offers a useful reminder of how even small vote shifts can alter outcomes under ranked-choice voting.
This year, Republican candidate Bob Sullentrop is again on the ballot. His campaign message focuses on opposing Democratic Socialist candidates, and he’s been active across the ward, delivering flyers and knocking on doors. After two election cycles, many voters know who he is—a crucial factor.
In 2023, Sullentrop received 418 first-choice votes. When those ballots were reallocated, a majority of his voters—along with the 544 voters who had supported an alternate DFL candidate, Terry White (me)—listed Andrea Jenkins as their second choice. Those transferred votes provided Jenkins a margin of 38 votes over challenger Soren Stevenson.
In 2021, Sullentrop earned 1,468 votes running directly against Jenkins. If voting patterns hold, roughly 12 percent of Ward 8 voters will again choose someone other than the leading candidates, meaning second-choice preferences could once more determine the result.
The lesson is straightforward: ranked-choice voting rewards informed participation. Voters should take time to learn not only about their first-choice candidate, but also about who they’ll rank second and third. The League of Women Voters Minneapolis hosts candidate forums and posts information on both its website and vote411.org.
Better Minneapolis has extended interviews with many of this year’s candidates in our archives, or you can visit our YouTube Channel www.youtube.com/@BetterMinneapolis.
Better Minneapolis does not endorse candidates, but subscribers are welcome to contact us directly for insight and analysis specific to their ward.
When I lit drop for my independent campaign in Ward 11, I encounter older, mostly male and vocal residents who say there's no point, or they have no interest. I so much want to suggest to them that their indifference may be why things are as they are, but some people are just sick of it. The louder angry ones may be statistically negligable, but behind closed doors, I think a milder version of that attitude is prevalent. W11 hasn't been very close but for 2017, but some other recent ward races have been in the recount range. The mayor race feels very close to me, especially if the runners up among challengers bring votes up to Omar Fateh (assuming he is the #1 among the three now. I've begun to wonder.). Also, this bit about undecideds: Am I wrong that if you were undecided at that poll time that you might be window-shopping David or Hampton, but are probably not going to break for Omar Fateh? I'm a little surprised there isn't an explicit `Anyone but Omar'' campaign to blunt the `Don't Rank Frey' rally. We shall see.
If you asked me a year ago if I was an informed Minneapolis voter, I would have said yes. However, in reality, I was pretty uninformed. I am concerned about this fall's election. It will be a miracle if we achieve a 50% turnout. I assume if you asked Minneapolis residents who the mayor was, half would not know. If you asked who represents them on the City Council, less than 25% would know, and if you asked who their Park Board commissioner was, less than 5% would know. These are uninformed guesses on my part. Now that I am a Minneapolis Municipal Blogger, I know more, but I am still pretty uninformed. My point is that most people are uninformed, and the motivated and organized (and that seems to be the DSA crowd) can really sway. Everyone needs to wake up and at least understand who the mayoral candidates and their City Council Ward candidates are and what they stand for - plus actually vote.