Election season is back, and if your mailbox looks anything like ours, it’s overflowing with glossy flyers promising bold visions for the city. Some come from familiar sources — candidate committees, unions, the usual independent expenditure groups. Others bear the names of organizations we’ve never heard of. (“The Working People’s Party”? We tried to learn more and came up mostly empty.)
We last ran a mayoral survey in December 2024, back when the field looked very different. Since then, Emily Koski bowed out, Jazz Hampton jumped in, and the airwaves have filled with conventions, forums, ads, endorsements (and their removal), and suggested sample ballots. With so much movement, it’s time to check whether early predictions still hold up — or whether the mood of readers has shifted.
When we try to guess who’s ahead, we usually rely on a few unreliable indicators.
Yard signs: campaigns track them obsessively, though they can be deceiving.
Postcards: these reveal which candidates have money to spend, not necessarily support to count.
Gossip: sometimes the most honest measure of momentum. Ask five friends who they’re backing — if you hear the same name more than three times, it might mean something. Or not.
Of course, the best way to know what voters are thinking is to ask them. However, methods for asking are not as simple as they used to be. Many people block phone calls and texts. Others keep the information confidential, even if you can reach them. If someone has already voted and is willing to tell you who they chose, that seems like useful information. If they say they are going to vote, many things could get in the way: a flat tire, rain, emergency childcare, or it could slip their mind altogether.
So, we’re asking.
Please take our (entirely unscientific) survey about the Minneapolis election. We’ll compare the results with our December poll to see if opinions have shifted — or if the early favorites still hold their edge.